MILAN – The global coffee market is entering a complex phase, in which the current abundance of supply could coexist with risks that may emerge in future crop seasons. In this in-depth analysis for Comunicaffè, Luca Mattei, market analyst, author and founder of the EcoModities™ Research Initiative, examines the potential impact of a very strong El Niño on coffee production across key origins, from Brazil and Vietnam to Colombia. At the heart of the analysis is not only the climate itself, but above all producers’ ability to adapt to changing conditions. Water, fertilizers, energy, credit and agronomic management are therefore becoming crucial variables in understanding how supply may evolve. This brings a new indicator into focus: the cost of climate and production adaptation across the coffee supply chain.
El Niño and Fertilizers: The Next Coffee Shock Could Begin Before the Harvest
by Luca Mattei
The global coffee market could enter an unusual phase over the coming months, characterized by relatively abundant current supply and the accumulation of risks that may emerge in subsequent crop cycles.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in August that El Niño is strengthening and assigned a greater than 90% probability to a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. For October-December, NOAA also estimates a 69% probability that the Relative Oceanic Niño Index will reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding the strength of episodes recorded since 1950.
For the coffee supply chain, the intensity of the oceanic anomaly is the starting point. The critical question concerns producers’ capacity to adapt to the conditions that follow.
This is where water, fertilizers, energy and crop management become market variables.
That adaptive capacity is also being tested by input markets. According to the World Trade Organization Secretariat, fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to almost zero during the most acute phase of the Gulf crisis. The disruption is particularly significant given that Gulf countries accounted for 24.8% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports in 2024. Urea prices climbed from around $400 to more than $850 per tonne during the most intense phase of the crisis before falling back towards $453 in June. The subsequent correction eased price pressure. Physical availability, logistics costs and the risk of renewed disruptions continue to influence procurement and fertilizer application decisions.
Risk Begins Before the Harvest
Coffee production contains a biological lag that markets can easily underestimate.
A significant share of future availability is determined months before beans reach the market. Water availability, fertilization, vegetative development, flowering, fruit set and crop management progressively influence yields and quality.
This creates a time gap between the emergence of risk and its appearance in production statistics.
Brazil currently provides a particularly important example. Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) currently estimates 2026 production at around 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags, more than 18% above 2025. At the same time, the arrival of the first rains after the dry season in key southeastern producing regions can stimulate flowering for the new crop cycle.
The supply chain can therefore observe substantial availability from the current harvest. During the same period, the biological processes that will determine the next crop are already beginning.
For buyers, roasters and traders, this overlap changes how climate risk should be assessed.